Critical Path Risk Score
Quantify the fragility of your project's critical path based on float, density of critical activities, and remaining duration.
Score = 100 × (CriticalRatio × 0.5 + (1 − Float/Duration) × 0.5)Interpretation Guide
- 0 – 40Resilient critical path.
- 40 – 70Moderate exposure.
- > 70High fragility — replan.
Example
20 of 80 activities critical, 3 days avg float on 60-day remaining → Score ≈ 60 (amber).
Real-world use cases
- Schedule reviews
- Mega-project assurance
- Bid risk assessment
Common mistakes
- Ignoring near-critical paths with < 5 days float
Professional tips
- Re-score weekly during execution
Frequently asked questions
How is this different from float erosion?
Float erosion looks at how much buffer was consumed. This score considers density of critical work and current buffer at the same time.
What this tool does
Quantify the fragility of your project's critical path based on float, density of critical activities, and remaining duration.
It applies the standard formula Score = 100 × (CriticalRatio × 0.5 + (1 − Float/Duration) × 0.5) so planners, schedulers and PMOs get a defensible number they can put in front of a steering committee.
Looking for the underlying terminology? Open the PM Glossary or the PM Cheat Sheet for quick references on EVM, scheduling and risk terms.
When to use it
- Schedule reviews
- Mega-project assurance
- Bid risk assessment
Typical owners: project managers, planning engineers, project controls leads and PMO analysts running weekly or monthly performance reviews on EPC, infrastructure, IT and construction projects.
How to interpret the result
Treat the number as a signal, not a verdict. Read it together with the trend over the last 3–6 reporting periods, the critical-path status, and the risk register before you change the plan.
- Compare against the baseline, not against another project.
- Investigate the drivers behind the value before reporting it up.
- Pair it with at least one complementary KPI (cost, schedule, risk or quality).
Worked example
20 of 80 activities critical, 3 days avg float on 60-day remaining → Score ≈ 60 (amber).
In a real project review, document the inputs, the resulting value, the interpretation, and the corrective action you committed to. That audit trail is what turns a calculator output into a controls decision.
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