EAC Forecast Calculator
Forecast the total final cost of your project based on current cost performance using the standard Earned Value formula EAC = BAC / CPI.
EAC = BAC / CPI where CPI = EV / ACInterpretation Guide
- EAC ≤ BACProject trending under budget at completion.
- EAC 1–10% over BACModerate overrun — manage closely.
- EAC > 10% over BACMaterial overrun — escalate and replan.
Example
BAC $500k, EV $200k, AC $240k → CPI 0.83 → EAC ≈ $600k, a $100k overrun forecast.
Real-world use cases
- Monthly forecast updates
- Change-control board decisions
- Portfolio funding adjustments
Common mistakes
- Assuming early-period CPI is stable
- Ignoring known future risks not in CPI
Professional tips
- Compare EAC against ETC bottom-up estimates
- Use sensitivity (CPI × SPI) for stressed forecast
Frequently asked questions
Which EAC formula should I use?
EAC = BAC / CPI is standard when current performance is expected to continue. Use EAC = AC + (BAC - EV)/(CPI×SPI) when schedule pressure affects cost.
What this tool does
Forecast the total final cost of your project based on current cost performance using the standard Earned Value formula EAC = BAC / CPI.
It applies the standard formula EAC = BAC / CPI where CPI = EV / AC so planners, schedulers and PMOs get a defensible number they can put in front of a steering committee.
Looking for the underlying terminology? Open the PM Glossary or the PM Cheat Sheet for quick references on EVM, scheduling and risk terms.
When to use it
- Monthly forecast updates
- Change-control board decisions
- Portfolio funding adjustments
Typical owners: project managers, planning engineers, project controls leads and PMO analysts running weekly or monthly performance reviews on EPC, infrastructure, IT and construction projects.
How to interpret the result
Treat the number as a signal, not a verdict. Read it together with the trend over the last 3–6 reporting periods, the critical-path status, and the risk register before you change the plan.
- Compare against the baseline, not against another project.
- Investigate the drivers behind the value before reporting it up.
- Pair it with at least one complementary KPI (cost, schedule, risk or quality).
Worked example
BAC $500k, EV $200k, AC $240k → CPI 0.83 → EAC ≈ $600k, a $100k overrun forecast.
In a real project review, document the inputs, the resulting value, the interpretation, and the corrective action you committed to. That audit trail is what turns a calculator output into a controls decision.
In-depth guide: EAC Forecast Calculator
Estimate at Completion (EAC) is the forecast of what the project will actually cost when finished. It is the single most-watched number on any large project after the contract value itself, because it drives funding requests, board approvals, contingency releases, and — on listed companies — quarterly earnings disclosures under IFRS 15 and ASC 606.
There are at least five recognised EAC formulas in PMI and AACE literature, each making a different assumption about future performance. The default on this page is EAC = BAC / CPI, which assumes future work will be performed at the same cost efficiency as past work. It is the right starting point for 80% of projects, but for schedule-pressured or recovery-mode projects the EAC = AC + (BAC − EV) / (CPI × SPI) variant is more conservative because it compounds cost and schedule inefficiencies.
Mature project controls teams compute multiple EAC variants every month, present them as a band rather than a single point estimate, and document which one they are reporting up the line. A reported EAC without a stated formula is essentially an opinion.
When to use it (and when not to)
Use EAC every month from the second reporting period onward, as soon as you have enough actuals for CPI to stabilise (typically 10–15% completion). Use it for change-control packages, funding draw-downs, contingency reviews, contract-incentive accruals, and portfolio re-prioritisation.
Avoid EAC in the first one or two periods, when CPI is too volatile to extrapolate. In that window, rely on the bottom-up estimate from the cost engineer and treat EAC as a sanity-check only.
Related KPIs to read alongside
Pair EAC with VAC (BAC − EAC, the forecast variance), TCPI (the cost efficiency required on remaining work to hit a given target), and the management-reserve burn rate. For contract management, also forecast Estimate to Complete (ETC = EAC − AC) and reconcile it monthly against the bottom-up cost-engineering estimate.
Worked example — water-treatment plant upgrade
A water-treatment plant upgrade has BAC = $24M over 24 months. At the end of month 10, EV = $9.6M (40% of planned scope) and AC = $11.5M. CPI = 9.6 / 11.5 = 0.835.
Three EAC variants are computed. EAC₁ = BAC / CPI = 24 / 0.835 = $28.7M (assumes current performance continues). EAC₂ = AC + (BAC − EV) = 11.5 + 14.4 = $25.9M (assumes remaining work runs at plan). EAC₃ = AC + (BAC − EV) / (CPI × SPI), with SPI = 0.92, gives 11.5 + 14.4 / 0.768 = $30.2M (assumes both cost and schedule pressure continue).
The project controls lead reports the band [$25.9M – $30.2M] with a most-likely value of $28.7M. The steering committee approves a $5M increase to the funding envelope plus a 10% management-reserve top-up, contingent on a recovery plan that brings the forecasted EAC back inside $27M within the next two periods.
Decision table
| Signal | What it means | Recommended action |
|---|---|---|
| EAC ≤ BAC | Forecast inside the budget envelope. | Hold — verify the inputs; consider releasing part of the contingency. |
| BAC < EAC ≤ 1.05·BAC | Minor forecast overrun. | Cover from contingency or management reserve; no external escalation. |
| 1.05·BAC < EAC ≤ 1.15·BAC | Material forecast overrun. | Formal change request; bring a recovery plan to the steering committee. |
| EAC > 1.15·BAC | Severe forecast overrun. | Escalate to sponsor and board; assess rebaseline, scope reduction, or termination. |
Common pitfalls in the field
- Reporting EAC without stating the formula. Two analysts computing EAC on the same project can produce numbers that differ by 15% just by choosing different assumptions about future performance. Always label the formula in the report footer.
- Anchoring on the original BAC. Once a project is genuinely off-track, sponsors often resist updating EAC because the new number is politically painful. The fix is to make EAC a mandatory monthly update governed by the PMO, not a discretionary one.
- Ignoring known future risks. The CPI-based EAC only captures past performance. If you know that a $2M scope addition or a 6-month tariff increase is coming, the EAC must be adjusted for it manually — the formula will not.
Featured in Academy articles
This calculator is referenced in the FAQs of these Academy articles — read them to understand the theory behind the numbers.
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