ETC Calculator
Forecast the cost required to complete the remaining work using the standard EVM ETC formula.
ETC = (BAC − EV) / CPIInterpretation Guide
- ETC ≤ Budget remainingRemaining work fits within remaining budget.
- ETC > Budget remainingForecast overrun on remaining scope.
Example
BAC $500k, EV $200k, AC $240k → CPI 0.83, ETC = 300k / 0.83 ≈ $361k.
Real-world use cases
- Cashflow planning
- Funding requests
- Cost-to-go reporting
Common mistakes
- Using BAC − AC instead of the CPI-adjusted formula
Professional tips
- Validate ETC against a bottom-up estimate quarterly
Frequently asked questions
What is the difference between ETC and EAC?
ETC is the forecast for remaining work only. EAC = AC + ETC is the forecast for the total project.
What this tool does
Forecast the cost required to complete the remaining work using the standard EVM ETC formula.
It applies the standard formula ETC = (BAC − EV) / CPI so planners, schedulers and PMOs get a defensible number they can put in front of a steering committee.
Looking for the underlying terminology? Open the PM Glossary or the PM Cheat Sheet for quick references on EVM, scheduling and risk terms.
When to use it
- Cashflow planning
- Funding requests
- Cost-to-go reporting
Typical owners: project managers, planning engineers, project controls leads and PMO analysts running weekly or monthly performance reviews on EPC, infrastructure, IT and construction projects.
How to interpret the result
Treat the number as a signal, not a verdict. Read it together with the trend over the last 3–6 reporting periods, the critical-path status, and the risk register before you change the plan.
- Compare against the baseline, not against another project.
- Investigate the drivers behind the value before reporting it up.
- Pair it with at least one complementary KPI (cost, schedule, risk or quality).
Worked example
BAC $500k, EV $200k, AC $240k → CPI 0.83, ETC = 300k / 0.83 ≈ $361k.
In a real project review, document the inputs, the resulting value, the interpretation, and the corrective action you committed to. That audit trail is what turns a calculator output into a controls decision.
In-depth guide: ETC Calculator
Estimate to Complete (ETC) is the forecast of the cost still to be incurred to finish the project. It is the bridge between today's actuals and tomorrow's EAC: EAC = AC + ETC. ETC is the number the cost engineer cares about most because it drives the monthly cash-flow forecast, the funding draw-down schedule, and the contingency-utilisation plan.
ETC can be computed two ways: top-down using CPI (ETC = (BAC − EV) / CPI) or bottom-up by re-estimating every remaining WBS element. Mature project controls teams do both every quarter and reconcile the gap — a top-down ETC that is more than 10% lower than the bottom-up ETC is a red flag that CPI has not yet caught up with deteriorating productivity.
On EPC and infrastructure projects, ETC is also the basis for the contractor's commercial accruals. A reported ETC that drops sharply between two periods without a corresponding scope change usually signals over-claiming on the bottom-up estimate.
When to use it (and when not to)
Use ETC monthly for cash-flow planning, contingency-utilisation forecasting, funding draw-down requests, and contractor payment-curve validation.
Avoid relying on the top-down CPI-based ETC alone past ~80% completion — at that point the remaining work is too small for CPI to be a reliable extrapolation. Switch to bottom-up estimating for the final stretch.
Related KPIs to read alongside
Pair ETC with EAC (the total forecast), VAC (the forecast variance against BAC), CPI (the efficiency basis for the top-down ETC), and the management-reserve balance. For cash-flow planning also compute the ETC burn rate (ETC ÷ remaining periods) and reconcile against the funding draw-down schedule.
Worked example — metro rail station fit-out
A metro station fit-out has BAC = $36M. At the data date, EV = $18M (50% earned), AC = $21M. CPI = 18 / 21 = 0.857; remaining EV = $18M.
ETC (top-down) = 18 / 0.857 = $21M. Adding to AC, EAC = 21 + 21 = $42M, a $6M forecast overrun.
The cost engineer runs a parallel bottom-up estimate on the remaining 12 work packages and arrives at $19.5M — $1.5M lower than the top-down ETC. The reconciliation shows the bottom-up figure assumes the productivity loss on civil works has bottomed out; the team agrees to report the band [$19.5M – $21M] and re-test the assumption every month against actual period productivity.
Decision table
| Signal | What it means | Recommended action |
|---|---|---|
| Top-down ETC ≈ Bottom-up ETC (±5%) | Both methods agree. | Use either; report the average. |
| Top-down ETC > Bottom-up ETC by 5–15% | Past CPI is worse than future is expected to be. | Confirm the productivity improvement is real, not aspirational. |
| Top-down ETC < Bottom-up ETC by 5–15% | Past CPI is masking future cost pressure. | Use the bottom-up figure; investigate why CPI has not caught up. |
| Top-down vs Bottom-up gap > 15% | One of the methods is wrong. | Re-run both; resolve before any external reporting. |
Common pitfalls in the field
- Using ETC = BAC − AC instead of the CPI-adjusted formula. This implicitly assumes that all remaining work will be performed at perfect efficiency (CPI = 1.0), which on a project already running at CPI = 0.85 is wishful thinking.
- Forgetting to update ETC for approved change orders. ETC must always reflect the current baseline (BAC) including approved changes, not the original baseline.
- Reporting ETC as a single point estimate. Best practice is to report ETC as a range — top-down vs bottom-up — and to disclose the assumptions behind both.
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